Shipping-data firm Kpler reported that more than 80% of vessels transiting the strait over the past two weeks used the UN‑authorised Omani route along Oman’s northern coast, a path Tehran opposes. The shift underscores growing reliance on the U.S. Navy for protection and suggests Iran’s grip over parts of the waterway is weakening, even as Tehran continues to assert control.
Traffic slows amid uncertainty
Preliminary Reuters data showed shipping traffic through the strait slowed on Tuesday, with many shipowners opting to avoid the waterway entirely amid unclear signals about when—or whether—it will reopen safely. Iran has attacked dozens of vessels attempting to transit along the route it objects to, prompting owners and charterers to reroute, delay sailings or take other evasive measures.
Despite risks, many vessels have continued to cross the strait in recent weeks, counting on U.S. naval escorts. The U.S. has also reported oil‑shipping volumes higher than earlier estimates from conventional tracking services, a claim President Donald Trump reiterated Monday when he said the United States has “total control over the strait.” Analysts caution, however, that ongoing Iranian attacks and oil flows remaining below pre‑war levels indicate that U.S. control is not absolute.
Toll revenue and “dark traffic”
The expiry this week of a U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding theoretically allows Iran to resume charging transit tolls. Kpler’s data, however, indicate Tehran has been unable to collect such fees recently because shipping has largely shifted away from Iran’s preferred route.
Several Gulf states, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to move crude through the Strait of Hormuz, transferring cargo to customer tankers outside the more dangerous Gulf of Oman zone, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
To avoid detection and attacks, some tankers have switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders for extended periods, creating “dark” traffic that eludes certain monitoring services. Satellite tracking still picks up portions of this activity, and U.S. military monitoring suggests higher throughput than surface tracking alone shows.
Diplomacy with Oman
Meanwhile, Oman and Iran are in talks aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the strait without direct U.S. involvement. The outcome of those discussions could influence shipping routes and the balance of control in the waterway, but their potential impact remains uncertain.
As the strategic tug‑of‑war continues, regional oil flows and global shipping stability hang in the balance, with vessel operators weighing risk, cost and the availability of naval protection when deciding how to transit one of the world’s most vital maritime passages.