London UK - El Niño will keep strengthening and is expected to peak in December, the United Nations said Thursday, warning the event could rank among the strongest on record since at least 1950.
The World Meteorological Organization said the Pacific warming pattern is firmly established and intensifying rapidly. Forecasts from 13 leading meteorological centres put the chance it will last through February 2027 at nearly 100 percent.
“El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December,” the WMO said in its monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update. It is likely to push temperatures above average across much of the planet and shift rainfall, raising the risk of drought in some regions and floods in others.
Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels in October–December 2026. The key anomaly index rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C in August, and is projected at about 3.7°C above normal for the October–December period — the highest since observations began, above the previous record of 2.6°C set in 2015–16.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño does not create new heat; it releases heat already stored in the ocean. “The ocean it’s drawing from is the warmest we’ve ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
El Niño typically returns every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, alternating with La Niña and neutral conditions. It usually peaks between November and February, with the largest temperature spike often arriving later.
The last El Niño helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest, at about 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. This event is already severe in parts of Central America, where drought is killing animals and crops.
The WMO said the pattern will affect weather, economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide, compounding the effects of human-driven climate change.